“The universe is change and life is opinion.” — Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 4.3
Change may be the only physical constant.
Our tomorrows are disappearing into oblivion, and today will soon follow. In this age of rapid technological change the flux feels more threatening and erosive than ever.
Hard-won skills — the work of a lifetime — may soon be obsolete. What should we even focus on when it may be worthless next year?
We should be skeptical of predictions, particularly for the social and economic impact of rapidly evolving technologies like AI. But I believe at least two human skills will hold their value through the AI onslaught. I wrote about the first last week.
Today we’ll discuss the second, a protective shield that will never lose its value.
The Skill of Cognitive Defense
"The slumber of reason breeds monsters.”
—Francis De Goya, Los Caprichos, 43
Whether it’s humans or malevolent AI trying to spin a story and lead us like sheep, being someone else’s plaything is never pretty — it’s slavery.
Luckily, we have a built-in defense — reason — but it often sleeps as we dance to someone else’s tune.
Today, a friend might whisper, “I think they’re misleading you. They’re trying to get you riled up.” Tomorrow, an AI might play the same role through an earpiece.
But unless we can think for ourselves, we’re dependent, and can’t be sure the friend or “benevolent” AI isn’t the one doing the misleading.
When I asked Massimo Pigliucci about fighting misinformation and bias recently, he recommended the book, A Short Course in Intellectual Self Defense, and I think it’s the perfect primer. It requires no high-level logic or math, but merely a willingness to reexamine initial reactions to the world and push back against our biases. I won’t rehash its suggestions here, but it’s worth a read.
Beyond this, there are three broad heuristics we can carry with us to immediately strengthen our intellectual defenses.
Downgrade by Default
“No one says, ‘My informant is of no account, an empty fellow; he either made it up, or believed someone who did.’ We let ourselves be blown about by the breeze, alarmed by ambiguities as though they were confirmed facts. We lose our sense of proportion: the least cause of uneasiness turns right away into fear.” — Seneca, Letters, 13.13
Whatever people are getting excited about en masse — online or in person — assume it’s much less extreme, good, or bad than they imply. Downgrade the importance of each “emergency” by 80% until you’ve had a chance to get curious about it (see below). Most things are based on some kernel of truth, but it’s probably blown out of all proportion.
Seneca suggests we:
“…reflect often that the majority of human beings become upset and bothered even when nothing bad is either present or definite for the future. …no one trims his fear to accord with reality.”
So will we be one of the mob, or will you keep our heads about us with a little perspective?
When others freak out, downgrade by default. If you’re angry, you’ve already lost.
Assume You’re Being Manipulated
“Few are deceived by the face that is just painted on: one’s true identity goes right to the core. Deceits have nothing solid about them. A lie is a tenuous thing, and on close inspection, transparent.” — Seneca, Letters, 79
People have always attempted to mislead with words and stir emotion for their own ends. We see this in Socrates’s critique of the Sophists strutting around Athens.
Yet today’s digital commons are flooded with manipulative communication on a scale we’ve never seen before. In an effort to swing the 2025 German elections, the Russians deployed hundreds of AI-generated websites and armies of AI Twitter accounts to post their views1. These AI armies provided the majority of the anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian posts during their 2022 invasion of Ukraine2. Other countries and political actors within the United States used similar tactics during the November 2024 Presidential Elections.
Lacking cognitive defensive skills, normal people are roped into being a part of these AI misinformation networks. They became slaves dancing to someone’s tune.
The best defense heuristic is to assume what you’re seeing has manipulative intent. Said another way, be highly skeptical of what you can know about the truth, and don’t share what you don’t know. Infernos needs no more fuel.
Michael Woudenberg suggests you assume everything is a psyop until proven otherwise. Since most people are merely acting as slaves, I’d add that you’re more likely to see the echo of a psyop, with the source obscured. Assume everyone has been deluded or tricked until you’ve examined their thinking.
The more you want something to be true, the more you should be skeptical, since it’s probably designed to play into the biases of people just like you.
Get Curious
“To read attentively—not to be satisfied with “just getting the gist of it.” And not to fall for every smooth talker.” — Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 1.7
Curiosity, the kind Aristotle thought led to human flourishing, may be our best piece of cognitive self-defense software.
How to generate curiosity in others, and how to avoid crushing it in the young is a vast topic that can’t be covered here.
But if you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you’re a curious person. One of the most powerful things you can do is lean into that inclination without letting it drag you down rabbit holes and distract you from what’s truly important (I’m frequently guilty of this). Always be prepared to remind yourself that “you always have the option to have no opinion.”
Research suggests that true curiosity — the urge to see the full picture, warts and all, and pleasurably building latticeworks of understanding for reality — helps us sidestep the politically motivated confirmation bias bedeviling mankind. One research review concludes3:
“…individuals who have an appetite to be surprised by scientific information—who find it pleasurable to discover that the world does not work as they expected—do not turn this feature of their personality off when they engage political information but rather indulge it in that setting as well, exposing themselves more readily to information that defies their expectations about facts on contested issues. The result is that these citizens, unlike their less curious counterparts, react more open mindedly and respond more uniformly across the political spectrum to the best available evidence.”
If Aristotle is right and the urge to know is the characteristic trait of humanity, it is, ironically, the very thing that will protect us from the AI minefield of deception that increasingly haunts the digital commons. All we need to do is lean into it.
However the future plays out, training up our cognitive defensive skills will pay a lifetime of dividends.
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It feels pretty ominous that we have to pay such close attention to these things, but all three of these principles are excellent!
I was recently asked to be the keynote speaker at my grad school’s white coat ceremony. Was planning on making the theme be related to authenticity and curiosity as skills for success professionally and in life. You’ve just given me some more ammunition. Thank you brother